What Are the Odds?

According to The New England Journal of Medicine, the chances that a man in the United States will receive long term care in his lifetime are 1/3 and the chances for a woman are 1/2(1).

To put this in perspective, consider the following odds:

• A major medical claim on your health insurance policy: 1/20
• A major auto liability claim: 1/240
• A fire at you house that results in a total loss of your home: 1/1,200.

Would any of us lay our head on our pillow at night knowing that our home was not insured? Just as we transfer the risk of a house fire to an insurance company, why do we not also transfer the risk of long term care costs to an insurance company?

Many people choose to gamble on long term care planning because of their good health. They reason that, if they are in good health today, then it is unlikely that they will need long term care in the future. Although you are healthy today, the reality is that our health can change in an instant.

People need long term care for a variety of reasons. Some people need long term care because they have had a stroke or they have Alzheimers. Other people need long term care because of the early onset of debilitating diseases that they never saw coming such as Parkinson’s Disease. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 40% of the people currently receiving long term care in the U.S. are under the age of 65 (2).

1 – Kemper, Peter et al. “Lifetime Use of Nursing Home Care.” The New England Journal of Medicine Vol. 324, No. 9. February 28, 1991.

2 – U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: National Clearinghouse for Long-Term Care Information. www.longtermcare.gov.